The real problem with the South Carolina Primary is that it’s open. Pretty much anyone can vote in it who wants to, as long as they meet normal voting participation requirements. Is this important? The fact is that John McCain, who won the Party’s 2008 nomination, didn’t win a single closed primary state before Super Tuesday. It wasn’t Republicans who made him the Party’s standard bearer.
The most practical ramification of the the fact that this primary is open is that once again Republicans might not be able to choose their own nominee. Consider the New Hampshire debacle: The key fact is that only 55% of voters in that Primary were registered Republicans. So 45% weren’t. Think about this. How likely is it that a non-Republican would choose to vote in the Republican Primary, passing on the opportunity to vote in an admittedly unexciting Democrat Primary, unless there was someone in it that genuinely appeals to them?
Of course it happens. Someone can have a change of mind, or be a Republican leaning independent who always seems to wind up voting in the GOP primary, and vote for Republicans in November. But notice also that the turnout was a record. There were a lot of people voting that don’t normally just wind up voting in a Republican Primary. In fact, more people voted in the GOP primary than voted in the Democrat Primary. Contrast that with very much the opposite result in a normal primary in the state.
For the most part, if people were excited about voting for real Republicans in a Republican Primary, wouldn’t they actually be a Republican already? So, 45% who turned out were non-Republicans and Donald Trump got 35% of the total vote. It’s clear that he would have not only lost his margin if only Republicans could vote, but might have been annihilated as well. This is an example of the GOP trying to help a Democrat who is trying to hijack the Republican nomination succeed.
While South Carolina is an unknown entity, the mere fact that it is open makes one fear the worst. How unknown? Before The Augusta Chronicle’s poll today, the Real Clear Politics last average of polling in the state was compiled on January 23rd. That was a week before Iowa, and two weeks before New Hampshire, and light years ago in political terms. The Chronicle poll is a likely voter poll of more than 700 participants and shows Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush each in double digits, but shows Trump with a 16 point lead.
Normally, the decisive block of voters would be Evangelicals. For example, in 2012, Newt Gingrich, who won the state handily, received 44% of the group’s vote to Mitt Romney’s 22%; game over. In South Carolina the words Evangelical and Christian are interchangeable. In the next week, look for ads focusing on Donald Trump’s three marriages, foul mouth, defense of partial birth abortion, and other notable sins. And look for Ted Cruz to do his best Southern Baptist preacher imitation on the trail. Since Jeb and Marco are both Catholics and there are only a couple hundred thousand Catholics in the state’s five million people, don’t look for either to bring up the subject.
The state’s senior Senator, Lindsey Graham, is going all out for Jeb, while the junior Senator, Tim Scott, has endorsed Marco Rubio, as has one of the state’s congressmen, Trey Gowdy. It’s unknown as to whether any new endorsements will transpire in the coming few days, but there will be some.
With all of its flaws, the Primary will be enormously significant. It’s the first of many Southern Primaries and will be the first signal of who will play in the region. It may be the last chance for Marco and Jeb to win a February contest. Assuming that John Kasich, who finished second in New Hampshire, but is in low single digits in South Carolina, has no second act, we’re down to four candidates who still have some semblance of a realistic path to the nomination.
If Ben Carson stays in the race, he will draw some Evangelical votes, but is not likely to really be a factor. The real question is whether anyone can surpass Trump. If the answer is yes, then things will get a lot brighter in March for the GOP. Nevada is a caucus state and it’s closed; only Republicans need apply, and among them, active Republicans will dominate.
Between them, the winnowing process will proceed. The other unresolved question is whether the last two February bouts will weed out one of the top four. It will be interesting to see what happens.
