In 2012, Newt Gingrich, despite high poll numbers nationally, finished an embarrassing fourth in Iowa. He then tied for third in New Hampshire with nine percent. Under the old “three tickets out of Iowa, two tickets out of New Hampshire” formula he would have been out of the race on both counts. Then he won a stunning 40% in South Carolina. It all came to naught, of course, as Mitt Romney crucified him in the Florida debate and Primary.
But what if he had won the Florida debate? His national poll results were still strong and most of the Southern states hadn’t come up yet. Had he finished first in Florida after his overwhelming victory in South Carolina he would have been the Anybody But Romney instead of being a thorn in Santorum’s side and the 2012 primary race might have turned out altogether differently.
In the Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce New Hampshire Poll that came out over the weekend Donald Trump has a huge lead, but then things get murky. Ted Cruz was in second place with 13%. Trump’s ignominious loss in Iowa will work to deflate his numbers, and I suspect it will drop him down to the teens early in the week. Cruz’s victory will raise his numbers by magnifying his credibility in the state, perhaps going into the mid- to high teens. And the tie for third in the poll was between Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, each with 10.
Marco’s strong third place finish in Iowa should give him some momentum in the state insofar as a third place finish in Iowa can provide momentum in the independent-minded Live Free or Die state. New Hampshire in the past has seemingly reveled in going its own way by ignoring or even spiting Iowa’s results. Indeed, it’s been 16 years since the winner in Iowa went on to win the nomination.
So Ted might have to wait for a second act. Marco becomes the front runner, as witness his now commanding lead at PredictWise. I predicted, of course, that despite Trump’s lead in the Iowa polls he would lose the state. And also that this loss would destroy the dominant theme of his campaign; that he’s ahead everywhere and his triumph is inevitable; that he’s bigger than life, come to make America great again and save the nation from the losers in both parties that have been running it.
With Donald having finished a relatively distant second, and almost slipping into third, it is Marco who emerged with momentum. Trump’s concession speech was conciliatory, appreciative, and exceedingly gracious by Trump standards. In the Monday morning interviews he pointedly did not predict victory in New Hampshire, despite having double digits in most recent polling of the state. He seems diminished. How he will react later this week is up in the air.
What will his crowds be like? They were already smaller before the Iowa result. He has always been a phenomenal motivator, but there needs to be a balance between motivation and substance. Too much motivation without substantive ideas and prescriptions for a better country and a campaign winds up with a lot of excited fools. Donald isn’t into selling ideas or a policy agenda of any sort. He’s into selling himself, but now he will have trouble with the ‘vote for me because I’m a winner’ theme. In the week before the number one primary on the calendar look for him to have trouble filling decent sized venues.
How about Ted? Can anyone see him being a front runner in a state like New Hampshire? People there saw him being humiliated in the Fox debate by the video showing his flip flop on immigration, and the credible attacks on him by other candidates. His Protestant Preacher persona isn’t a good fit for that part of the country. He will still be in the running after New Hampshire, but probably not in New Hampshire.
Karl Rove contends that there could well be a fourth ticket out of New Hampshire if someone other than the top three makes a demonstrative move in the state. Chris Christie, despite the Manchester Union Leader endorsement, was at five in the Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University poll and has lost momentum. John Kasich was at eight, but had been considerably higher. So if the demonstrative move isn’t by Kasich or Christie, that only leaves Jeb. Jeb’s trajectory has been higher there, and his low single digit finish in Iowa isn’t likely to leave scars in New England.
I predict he will finish in double digits next week and win the fourth ticket out of the state.
